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Showing posts from December, 2025

Average Earnings Better than Forecasted with Unemployment Ticking Higher

The UK unemployment rate for OCT came inline with the consensus view at 5.10%. This was an uptick of 0.1% compared to the previous month's figure of 5%. Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr)  for OCT came in at 4.70% which was better than the consensus forecast. The previous figure was revised up to 4.9%. The employment change for OCT came in at -16K better than the consensus. Claimant count was higher than the consensus figure at 20.1K with the previous figure revised to -3.9K. HMRC Payroll Change for NOV came in at -38K lower than expected.  The GBP/USD pair and UK 10Y yields strengthened on the release potentially due to the better than expected average earnings figure alongside the positive revision playing to the narrative that the path to lower rates might be difficult for the BoE as inflation might still present a problem with rising average earnings. 

Eurozone Industrial Production & NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

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The Eurozone Industrial Production figures were released today with the MoM figure coming in at 0.8% for the month of October which was inline with the consensus figures. The YoY figure published came in at 2.0% which was slightly better than the consensus forecasts of 1.9%. EUR/USD and German Bund yields initially gave a muted reactions, but saw gains as the market digested the positive news. Source: Eurostat The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in sharply lower at -3.90. This was considerably lower than the consensus figure of 10.  The EUR/USD pair sold off briefly on the release and the 10Y yield moved up slightly.